Why does my fruit tree crop heavily one year and not the next?
It is biennial bearing — a self-reinforcing cycle in which a heavy crop in one year prevents flower bud formation for the next, producing alternating years of glut and almost nothing.
The mechanism. Flower buds for next year's crop are formed during this summer, while the current crop is developing. A very heavy crop consumes the tree's resources and — more specifically — developing seeds produce hormones that suppress flower bud initiation.
So the tree that crops heavily forms few flower buds, producing almost nothing the following year. With no crop to support, it forms abundant flower buds that summer, producing another heavy crop the year after. Once established, the cycle is self-sustaining.
What starts it. Frequently a single event: a late frost destroying the blossom in one year means no crop, so the tree forms abundant buds and crops enormously the next — and the cycle begins. Drought, disease or an exceptional season can do the same.
Some varieties are strongly predisposed to it, and this is a known characteristic of particular apple and pear cultivars rather than a fault in your tree.
How to break the cycle:
Thin the fruit in the heavy year, and do it early — while fruitlets are small, ideally within a few weeks of the natural June drop. Removing a substantial proportion feels wasteful and is the effective intervention, because it reduces the hormonal suppression at the time bud initiation is happening.
The remaining fruit is also larger and better quality, so the total crop weight suffers far less than the reduction suggests.
Thin to one fruit per cluster, spaced along the branch.
Prune appropriately, and avoid the temptation to prune hard in the light year, which stimulates growth rather than flowering.
Feed and water consistently, since stress worsens it.
Protect blossom from frost where practicable, since a lost crop can restart the cycle.
Patience — correcting an established cycle can take a few seasons.
Thinning has other benefits regardless: it reduces branch breakage, improves fruit size and colour, and reduces disease by improving air movement.