What is the difference between a carbon tax and an emissions trading scheme?
Which variable is fixed. A carbon tax fixes the price and lets emissions find their level; a trading scheme fixes the quantity of emissions and lets the price find its level. Both put a cost on emitting; they achieve certainty about different things.
Carbon tax. Government sets a price per tonne of CO₂ equivalent. Emitters pay it, and reduce emissions where doing so costs less than the tax.
Advantages: price certainty, which allows businesses to plan and invest with a known cost; administrative simplicity; and predictable revenue.
Disadvantage: no certainty about the emissions outcome. If the price is set too low, emissions do not fall by the intended amount, and adjusting it requires a political decision — which is the hard part, since raising a visible tax is politically costly.
Emissions trading scheme (cap and trade). Government sets a cap on total emissions and issues allowances up to that cap. Emitters must hold an allowance for each tonne, and can buy and sell them.
Advantages: environmental certainty, since the cap determines the outcome directly; the market finds the cheapest reductions, because anyone who can cut cheaply will do so and sell their surplus; and the cap can be tightened on a pre-announced trajectory.
Disadvantages: price volatility, which makes investment planning harder; complexity; and vulnerability to over-allocation — if too many allowances are issued, the price collapses and the scheme achieves nothing, which happened in early phases of the EU system.
How free allocation complicates it. Allowances given free to protect industries exposed to international competition weaken the price signal, and the phase-out of free allocation is linked to carbon border adjustment.
Hybrid designs are now common, and address the main weakness of each: price floors and ceilings within a trading scheme provide some price certainty, and market stability reserves withdraw allowances when surpluses build.
What matters more than the choice: coverage — which sectors and gases are included, since uncovered sectors face no price at all; the level of the price or cap; and whether revenue is recycled, since both raise money that can be returned to households or used to fund reductions.