Question

What is permafrost, and why does thawing matter?

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Answer

Ground that has remained frozen for at least two consecutive years — covering roughly a quarter of the northern hemisphere's land — and its thaw matters because of what has been locked inside it for tens of thousands of years.

What is stored there. Permafrost holds enormous quantities of frozen organic matter: plants and animals that died and were frozen before they could fully decompose. Estimates put the carbon in permafrost soils at roughly twice the amount currently in the atmosphere.

Why thaw releases it. Thawed organic matter resumes decomposing, and microbes convert it to carbon dioxide where oxygen is available and to methane where it is not — in waterlogged ground and lake beds. Methane is a far more potent greenhouse gas over short timescales, so the ratio between the two matters enormously for the impact.

Why it is described as a feedback. Warming causes thaw; thaw releases greenhouse gases; those cause further warming. This is a genuine positive feedback, and it is not fully captured in many emissions budgets, which is why it appears in discussions of tipping points.

What is uncertain, honestly stated: how fast, how much, and the split between carbon dioxide and methane. Gradual thaw is reasonably modelled; abrupt thaw — where ground collapses as buried ice melts, forming lakes and slumps — releases carbon far faster over small areas and is poorly represented in models. Increased plant growth in a warmer Arctic offsets some of it, by an amount that is debated.

The physical consequences, which are already happening: ground subsidence damaging roads, pipelines, airstrips and buildings across northern communities, at very substantial cost; coastal erosion as frozen shorelines thaw; and landscape change affecting hunting, travel and ways of life.

The exhumation concerns — ancient microbes, and contaminants and waste buried on the assumption the ground would stay frozen — are real for the latter and more speculative for the former.

Subsea permafrost beneath Arctic continental shelves is a separate and less well understood store.

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