What is a climate tipping point?
A tipping point is a threshold beyond which a component of the climate system shifts to a qualitatively different state, and continues doing so under its own momentum even if the original forcing stops.
The defining features:
Self-sustaining change. Past the threshold, feedbacks drive the transition forward without further external push.
Difficult or impossible to reverse on human timescales — hysteresis means returning temperatures to previous levels does not return the system to its previous state.
Disproportionate response. A small additional change produces a large outcome, which breaks the intuition that impacts scale smoothly with warming.
The elements most commonly identified:
Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets. As an ice sheet thins, its surface descends to warmer altitudes, accelerating melt — a self-reinforcing loop. Committed sea level rise from either is measured in metres over centuries.
Permafrost thaw, releasing stored carbon and methane, which causes further warming and further thaw.
Amazon dieback. The forest generates much of its own rainfall through transpiration. Beyond a threshold of deforestation and drought, that recycling weakens and parts of the forest could transition toward savanna — converting a carbon sink into a source.
The Atlantic overturning circulation (AMOC), which redistributes heat northward. Freshwater from ice melt reduces the density-driven sinking that drives it. A substantial weakening would alter European climate considerably.
Coral reef die-off, which is already occurring extensively.
Boreal forest shifts and monsoon changes.
What the science does and does not say. The existence of these mechanisms is well established. The thresholds are uncertain — estimates span wide temperature ranges, and for several elements it is unclear whether a genuine tipping point exists or whether change is gradual. Timescales also differ enormously, from years for coral to millennia for ice sheets.
Cascading effects — one triggering another — are hypothesised and less well constrained.
Why they dominate the framing. Tipping points are the main reason the difference between 1.5°C and 2°C is argued to matter disproportionately.