Question

Why are wildfires getting worse?

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Answer

Because three separate trends have compounded: more flammable landscapes, more ignitions, and hotter drier conditions — and the first of those is frequently the most important and the least discussed.

Fuel accumulation. Many fire-prone ecosystems evolved with frequent low-intensity fire that consumed undergrowth. A century of aggressive fire suppression removed those small fires, allowing dense fuel to build. Suppressing small fires reliably produces bigger ones later — the fire deficit, and one of the clearest cases of a well-intentioned policy creating the problem it addressed. Indigenous cultural burning practices, suppressed alongside it, are now being reintroduced in several regions.

Climate conditions. Higher temperatures increase evaporation, drying vegetation. Vapour pressure deficit — how thirsty the air is — has risen measurably and is strongly associated with fire severity. Fire seasons have lengthened by weeks to months in many regions, snowpack melts earlier, and droughts are more intense.

More ignitions, closer to people. The overwhelming majority of wildfires near populated areas are human-caused — power lines, vehicles, equipment, discarded material and arson. Expansion of housing into the wildland-urban interface puts more ignition sources into flammable landscapes and more property in the path.

Other contributors: invasive grasses that cure early and burn readily, converting shrubland to a more frequent fire cycle; tree mortality from drought and insects; and in some regions the conversion of diverse forest to uniform plantation.

Why the fires themselves behave differently. Extreme fires generate their own weather — pyrocumulonimbus clouds producing lightning and erratic winds — making them essentially uncontrollable until conditions change. Suppression resources are overwhelmed when many large fires burn simultaneously.

What actually reduces risk: prescribed burning and fuel management at landscape scale; defensible space and ignition-resistant construction, which evidence shows matters more for home survival than nearby vegetation alone; utility infrastructure hardening and shutoffs; land-use planning; and early detection.

Smoke is a major and under-counted health impact, travelling thousands of kilometres.

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