Question

What is the Duckworth-Lewis method in cricket?

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A mathematical method for resetting the target in a rain-affected limited-overs match, so that a side batting second is asked for a fair score given the overs and wickets it actually has.

The problem it solves is that overs and wickets are not independent. A team chasing 250 from 50 overs is in a very different position from one chasing 250 from 25 overs — but also from one chasing it with only three wickets left. Simply scaling the target by overs, which is what earlier methods did, ignores wickets entirely and produces absurd results.

The method, devised by statisticians Frank Duckworth and Tony Lewis, treats a batting side as having two resources: overs remaining and wickets in hand. A published table gives the percentage of total resources available for any combination. If a team loses resources to an interruption, the target is adjusted in proportion to the resources each side actually had.

It replaced methods that produced notorious outcomes — most famously the 1992 World Cup semi-final, where rain left South Africa needing 21 runs from one ball.

The current version is the Duckworth-Lewis-Stern method, updated by Steven Stern in 2014 to reflect the higher scoring rates of modern cricket, particularly in Twenty20.

A revised target is usually a run higher than the par score, which is why chases often end on figures like 162 from 20 overs rather than round numbers.

A minimum number of overs must be bowled for a result — usually 20 per side in a one-day match, five in Twenty20 — otherwise the match is abandoned rather than decided.

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