Question

What is customer lifetime value, and how is it actually calculated?

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Answer

The total profit you expect from a customer over the whole relationship. It is the number that determines how much you can afford to pay to acquire one — and it is calculated wrongly more often than almost any other marketing metric.

The basic formula, for a subscription business:

Average revenue per customer per period × gross margin ÷ churn rate. If a customer pays £50 a month at 70% margin and 5% monthly churn, lifetime value is £50 × 0.7 ÷ 0.05 = £700.

The mistakes that make it meaningless:

Using revenue instead of gross profit. Lifetime revenue is not lifetime value. Costs of goods, payment processing, support and delivery must come out — and for some businesses that halves the figure.

Ignoring the time value of money. Profit arriving in year five is worth less than profit today, and for a business that must fund acquisition upfront, cash timing matters more than the total.

Averaging across very different customers. A single blended figure hides that one segment is profitable and another destroys value. Calculate it by segment and by acquisition channel, because that is what changes decisions.

Assuming churn stays constant. Churn is usually highest early and falls as customers mature, so a flat rate understates the value of survivors and overstates that of new joiners.

Projecting too far. A ten-year horizon on a two-year-old business is fiction. Cap it at a defensible period.

Forgetting that it is a forecast, not a measurement.

What it is actually for. The ratio of lifetime value to customer acquisition cost is the central unit economic. A commonly cited healthy benchmark is around 3:1, with the caveat that a very high ratio frequently indicates underinvestment in growth rather than excellence.

Payback period matters more for survival. How many months until a customer repays their acquisition cost determines how much cash you must hold. A business with excellent lifetime value and an eighteen-month payback can still fail.

Use cohorts rather than a single number, and revise as real data arrives.

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